Senator Rankings - Morning Consult Voters will be measuring him against a Democratic opponent, but we wont know who that will be until after the states August primary. Top 10 U.S. Senate races that are most likely to flip : NPR Get The American Independent in your inbox, Former senior investigative reporter at ThinkProgress and former head of money-in-politics reporting at the Center for Public Integrity. With Biden similarly struggling with independents, Sykes said the stakes have been raised for Democrats to nominate a candidate in their August primary who is acceptable to voters embarrassed by Johnson.. Mandela Barnes leads Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson among likely voters in the November election, according to the latest poll from the Marquette University Law School. All rights reserved. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. Abstract The modern civilization is the antithesis of religious way of life. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin had the third lowest approval rating (37%) among U.S. According to a, As hate crimes against Asian Americans have, Billionaire Elon Musks quest to buy Twitter isnt yet official, but if he is successful, he said this week he will. . Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Wedding-Focused Event Hall Planned for Vliet Street Near Washington Park, Friday Photos: UWMs New Chemistry Building Topped Off, Trump Recount Attorney Reappointed To Wisconsin Judicial Conduct Committee, Transportation: MCTS Buses Could Again Serve Summerfest, But Issues Remain, Housing Authority Has Waitlist Three Times Larger Than Its Affordable Housing Supply, $10.4 Million in Unclaimed Property matched to Rightful Owners, Two senior pedestrians killed attempting to cross Milwaukee streets, Eyes on Milwaukee: Train Car Bar Being Demolished, Transportation: Airport Will Rip Out Two Runways, Murphys Law: Journal Sentinel Circulation a Disaster, Milwaukee Extends Downtown Parking Meters To 9 P.M., Adds Saturdays, Protasiewicz Says She Would Recuse Herself From Cases Involving Democratic Party, Milwaukee World Festival, Inc. googletag.cmd.push(function() { googletag.display('div-gpt-ad-1420576007798-2'); }); The Supreme Court Not So Much. Republican Sen. Susan Collins is another senator who hopes to overcome the partisan lean of her state (Maine is 5 points more Democratic-leaning than the nation) to win reelection. Reagan's job approval ratings in the first years of his term were hurt by the bad economy, and the last years of his administration were marred by the negative . Finally, the senator who ranks last in PARS is also up for reelection in 2020, and its a big name: Majority Leader Mitch McConnell. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. Calculating PARS and PARG is simple: Its just the difference between each states FiveThirtyEight partisan lean2 and the senator or governors net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating). 2023 CNBC LLC. Last week, U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) reneged on his pledge to step down after two terms and announced he would seek re-election.. Those include Republican Sens. Murphy's Law: Which Democrat Can Beat Ron Johnson? R+23. This also offers a glimmer of hope to Democrats who face the very real prospect of losing control of the Senate in 2022, as this falls midterm elections are shaping up well for Republicans. RCP House Ratings, Map. The Democrats could have run a dead person against Donald Trump in 2020 and the dead person probably would have received more votes than Joe Biden And we would probably be better off today if a dead person had won in 2020, rather than war mongering liar Joe Biden. Did Ron Johnson win reelection with one of the lowest approval ratings Last month, he opposed federal funds to help the American microchip industry compete against China, indicating that he did not want to "have government picking the winners and losers.". Republicans will probably say that they want a more progressive candidate like Mandela to run against they said the same thing about Tammy, a liberal LGBTQ woman from Madison with a long congressional record, she said. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. And a high number of respondents who dont know which candidate they favor 36% in the primary for senator and 32% in the primary for governor allows lots of room for both races to change. The polling suggests that in the past two years, Johnson has positioned himself better for the first task than the second. Becky Can I marry this table, or this, you know, clock? As Sen. Ron Johnson weighs future, Trump ties take a toll - Madison The senators name recognition has grown to its highest levels. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. Those is Tim. Become a member for $9/month. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson's voting record, net worth, approval rating Democrats are reportedly trying to recruit former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath, who raised $8.6 million for an unsuccessful 2018 congressional bid, to run against him. Pay no attention to countless testimonies? The governors race in Rhode Island could be a sleeper, though, considering Gov. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . (PDF) The world on the verge of the third wave | kedir ibrahim Among likely voters, Sen. Ron Johnson is supported by 52% and Lt. Gov. MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. That said, they are all in very safe states, so they shouldnt be in any danger. The correlation between senatorial approval rating and partisan lean is 0.44; the correlation between gubernatorial approval rating and partisan lean is -0.11. "I think when using federal tax dollars, you want to spend those in the most efficient way, and if it's more efficient, more effective to spend those in other states, I don't have a real problem with that. Wisconsin is one of four states (including Connecticut, Minnesota and Vermont) where voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick the nominees for the general election in November. By contrast, Baldwin's fellow Senator Ron Johnson elicits a much less favourable net approval rating of -22%, since 49% disapprove and 27% approve of Senator Johnson's overall job performance. These are some takeaways from a detailed analysis of nearly a decade of polling on Johnson by the Marquette Law School. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). But it has also been pronounced among some more politically mixed groups that arent as lopsidedly red or blue. Evers, by contrast, had a net positive rating, with 48% approving of the job he did and 45% disapproving. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean is the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country votes overall. Opinion | The Wisconsin GOP is stuck with Ron Johnson. Democrats could The Cook Political Report lists the 2022 Senate race as a toss-up. Hitt said Johnsons message in a Wall Street Journal op-ed he wrote announcing his re-election campaign was a good start in appealing to both the GOP base and the 6 to 7 percent who stand in the middle of the Wisconsin electorate as true swing voters. The Least Popular Members Of Congress From Every State The Perks Workers Want Also Make Them More Productive, Then again, a senators PARS score isnt everything. If youre running in a purple state and its a Republican year, none of that matters., Eli Yokley is a senior data reporter at Morning Consult covering politics and campaigns. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) thinks he has done 'a really good job,' even with an approval rating of 36%. Biden Job Approval on Issues. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? Jones is a Democratic senator in R+27 Alabama, so hes fighting an uphill battle. Mandela Barnes is the choice of 46%. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. No matter who wins the 2020 presidential election, they wont be able to get much done if their party doesnt also win the Senate. In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. Americans vote for the politician they hate the least, not the politician they support. He has refused to take responsibility for his unpopularity, claiming in January that it is all the news media's fault. Governors running for reelection in swing states also have some very different PARGs that explain why some of them are vulnerable this year, while others probably dont have anything to worry about. Wisconsins senior senator should get a boost from traditional midterm dynamics, where the party out of power is helped by animosity toward the party in the White House. Since then, President Biden has been sworn in, and with dual wins in Georgia, Democrats went . Pandemic Politics: Red state governors are in trouble for their Covid He said the early data has no way of accounting for the X factor of Ron Johnson when hes campaigning.. Barnes, the current lieutenant governor of Wisconsin, leads Johnson 51% to 44%, up from a narrow two-point lead he held in June, when polls showed Barnes had the support of 46% voters in the battleground state, which voted for former President Donald Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden in 2020. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953-61. Barnes and Johnson have attacked each other as being too politically extreme and out of touch. Approval rating Approval Disapproval rating Disapproval Net approval. People are more polarized over Johnson by party, by ideology, by gender and other measures. And you might expect Democratic Gov. Biden Job Approval in All 50 States. The WOW counties have been growing less Republican, and the recent decline in Johnsons ratings in this region is striking. Approval Ratings (130) Each currently enjoys an extraordinary PARG of +75 or higher. Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson: My low approval ratings aren't my fault RealClearPolitics - 2022 Wisconsin Senate Shaded rows denote senators whose seats are up in 2020, excluding those senators who are not seeking reelection. Why Republicans aren't likely to lose any Senate seats in 2022 - CNN Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Membership, which includes a host of perks, including an ad-free website, tickets to marquee events like Summerfest, the Wisconsin State Fair and the Florentine Opera, a better photo browser and access to members-only, behind-the-scenes tours, starts at $9/month. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. They all sit in closely divided states (from R+2 for New Hampshire to D+2 for Minnesota), yes, but they are all also quite popular. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas have seen their approval ratings dip amid an alarming rise of Covid-19 infections and hospitalizations in both states over the past two months, . Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson is poised to win Tuesday's primary. His He has been endorsed by well-known political figures including Sens. Around a quarter of Wisconsin Republicans (24 percent) disapprove of his job performance. Democratic Lt. Gov. (from left) Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., Catherine Cortez Masto, D-Nev., and Ron Johnson, R-Wis., are all facing . Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Larry Hogan of Maryland. These polling trends dont mean Johnson cant win this fall. Republican U.S. Sen Ron Johnson stayed about the same, with a 36% . 2022 Senate Races: Initial Ratings - Rasmussen Reports Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) is deeply unpopular among his own constituents, according to a new poll released Monday. Americans Like Bidens Student Debt Forgiveness Plan. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. But Democratic Gov. ), could be Democrats best hope to flip a Senate seat in November. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. In Marquettes recent polling, there is now a massive 130-point partisan gap in attitudes toward Johnson: plus 57 among Republicans, minus 73 among Democrats. "First of all, I'm not a polarizing figure. How Every Senator Ranks According To 'Popularity Above Replacement For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. New Marquette Law School Wisconsin survey finds Barnes with 7-point lead over Johnson in U.S. Senate race, Evers ahead of Michels by 2 points in the race for governor, and Biden approval rating unchanged . Jimmy Carter 1977-81. Meanwhile, Republican U.S. 2023, Urban Milwaukee, Inc. All rights reserved. The M Logo and MORNING CONSULT are registered trademarks of Morning Consult Holdings, Inc. has shown Johnson near the bottom of the pack in terms of base support among Republican senators running for re-election this year. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. Steve Sisolak of Nevada also has a distinct personal brand that could help him weather a tough reelection campaign in purple Nevada. Tony Evers, who is down from 50% to 45%. In 2016, Johnson easily outperformed Donald Trump on the same ballot in these three counties. In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. Ron Johnson Is Unpopular in Wisconsin. Can He Win Anyway? - Morning Consult They might have been in real danger of losing their seats in 2022, but thankfully for Democrats, both are retiring. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. 2023 Morning Consult, All Rights Reserved. Executive Branch - All kinds of federal government materials. Republicans in Wisconsin said Johnson would do well to craft a message meant to appeal to voters in the middle, nodding to the approach of Virginia Gov. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. to hit the Biden administrations failed response to the COVID-19 pandemic, crime rates and the rising cost of living all issues that give Democrats heartburn. 2023 www.jsonline.com. Announces Mary Ellen Stanek as Board Chairwoman and adds Dr. Joan Prince and Charles Harvey to Board of Directors, Tiffany Tardy Named New Executive Director of MPS Foundation, DWD Announces Appointments of Jeremy Simon as Assistant Deputy Secretary, Arielle Exner as Legislative Liaison. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. She pointed to tax breaks he supported, that benefited big donors to his campaigns. This is up from 80% a year ago, even though 87% of respondents had deployed anti-virus software. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. If you are an existing member, sign-in to leave a comment. Johnson has received his highest negatives ever (the share of voters who view him unfavorably) in Marquettes last four polls. Bolded rows denote senators running for reelection in 2022. And he doesn't shy away from progressive social issues: His TikTok account, for instance, features posts of him calling for the Senate to end the filibuster, codify Roe v. Wade into law and pass the Equality Act to enact protections for transgender people. Can we marry dogs? Similarly, if you were to look at state partisanship alone, you might assume that Democratic Sens. In Marquettes polling, most voters including about one-third of Republicans are skeptical toward Johnsons statements about COVID. Wisconsin Senate - Johnson vs. Barnes - RealClearPolitics Mandela Barnes lead over Sen. Ron Johnson for the key Senate seat widened from two points in June to seven points in a new poll released Wednesday. Each has a PARS between +1 and -3, indicating that their net approval rating is in line with their states partisan lean. Though Johnson's 37% approval rating in the poll is dismal, it is actually slightlyhigher than in other recent polling. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . This is ridiculous. yes, Becky. When the dates . . The world has been led by intensive and extensive waves of darkness from renaissance all the way down to the Covid crisis. How Every Senator And Governor Ranks According To Popularity Above Replacement, reinstate former President Donald Trumps account, What The 20 Republicans Who Voted Against Kevin McCarthy Have In Common. She pointed to tax breaks he supported that benefited big donors to his campaigns and his comments about vaccines and the 2020 election as chief examples. ", He also has angered Wisconsin workers by refusing to even try to bring home good jobs. Gas prices have plummeted. Some recent surveys put his approval at 35%, while a March Marquette University Law School poll found him at just 33% support. A Democratic senator with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARS of +9 (2+7 = 9). PARS, like PARG, is calculated by measuring the distance between a politicians net approval rating (approval rating minus disapproval rating) in her state and the states partisan lean (how much more Republican- or Democratic-leaning it is than the country as a whole).2 Take West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin as an example. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. His net favorability improved during the campaign year of 2016 from net negative to net positive. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images), Barnes tops Johnson by 7 points in Wisconsin Senate race: poll, Ron Johnson tries for a rebrand after years of controversy and Democratic attacks, 'Out of touch': Wisconsin's Barnes and Johnson prepare for general election campaign defined by attacks.